Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine β a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister β a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal β and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine β for Ukraine β Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas β including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines β something Russia has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority β and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or is able to, give up the fight.