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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|