Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
